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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Federal Government Stockpiling Ammunition?

There are several articles coming across the net about government agencies stockpiling ammunition. This is generating some concern from the citizenery especially with right wing beliefs that the current Adminstration may attempt some election shenagians or events that would allow the current office holders to remain in power.

And another popular right wing belief is that the government knows it is sinking rapidly and is preparing for population and riot controls.

Recent revelations about Department of Homeland Security purchasing 450 million rounds of .40 S&W Jacketed Hollow Point ammunition and the Social Security Administration buying 174,000 .40 S&W rounds have gotten alot of tonges wagging and fingers typing across the blogosphere.

450 million rounds of .40 caliber, purchased by DHS, over a several year (maximum of five) period of time equates to less than 1,400 rounds per year, per DHS law enforcement officer or agent. With annual qualification and training requiring less than 300 rounds per individual, there is some room to believe that 450 million is an excessive number of rounds. Factor in ammunition requirements for the various tactical teams and specialized units then you come pretty close to validating the requirement.

Then there is the Social Security Administration buying 174,000 thousands rounds for it's approximately 300 enforcement agents with arrest powers. That around 580 rounds per agent, hardly an excessive amount in my opinion. Another angle is why does the Social Security Administration need armed agents and why are they carrying hollow point ammunition, banned by the Geneva Convention and the Land Of Warfare? Social Security agents also investigates crimes.  Well, hollowpoint ammunition is easily justified and has been in current use by law enforcemnt agents for the past,..what? 30 years or so? Hollow point ammunition is actualy safer, providing you hit what you mean to as it has a less chance of over penetrsation and posing a danger outside of the intended target.

174,000 rounds for 300 agents is pretty minimal for training and duty carry equating to 580 rounds per man per year. That would roughly be used as 240 rounds for qualifications; 45 rounds or so for duty carry; and, 290 for training.

While as American Citizens we have a duty to remain vigilant against government encroachment of their powers and the subsequent reduction of our freedoms,....the ammunition purchases circulating around the web are not something we need to be overly concerned about.

I am more concerned the planned hiring of, what?, 16,000 additional IRS agents.  I am more concenred about the price and availability of food.....the probability of food shortages and masses of dis-advantaged people rioting in the streets over hyper-inflation and the collapse of the dollar.   I am more concenred about my own survival stocks and that includes ammunition for my family's own security.   So should you.   

Thursday, September 27, 2012

The State of Today

I wanted to titled this "Urban's Man Rant", but a rant insinuates an emotional aspect to one's opinion. And I am stone, cold sober and rational looking that these issues.......not angry,...but a lot concenred, maybe somewhat scared.

It started the other night as my wife and I were watching "Revolution the television show". My wife commented to the effect that it seems like everyone is preaching armagedon and collapse, or, capitalizing on the general belief that things are going downhill and collectively we expect bad things to occur.

I told her she was right and that while you can fool some of the pople some of the time, you can't fool all of the people all of the time. And that people's intuition is stronger than their analytical skills.

Back to the television,.........I don't think I'll be sitting through another episode of "Revolution". The first few minutes showing years after a EMP event where the main characters have built a agricultural enclave on a suburban street (totally realistic and necessary) but then a militia group on horseback enters the community unannounced, no early warning systems, no barriers or obstacles, no weapons nor trained response left me wondering if the entertainment value would supercede the non-enjoyment of seeing un-realistic bad examples.

While my wife understands and supports our preparation aspects and the development of several families in our "survival group", she like many Americans usually decides to ignore analysis of the possible bad things,...she basically leaves it to me to plan and prepare.

I placed the television on mute to explain (again) what Electro Magnetic Pulse was and the possible sources or causes of an EMP event. While many of you believe that EMP is vastly over rated for it's effects it would have on the U.S. infrastructure, I assure you that it is not over estimated.

In a previous life I have done threat and vulnerability assessments on utilities facilities and some of the management was pretty open about how easy it is to bring down major power and telecommunications facilities,...but more importantly in the apsects of an EMP,....very difficult to re-build.

If the threat of EMP isn't enough, we have a good 1/3 of the world pissed off at the U.S.  Doesn't matter if the complaint is legit or not,. there are currently large scale anti-American demonstrations in Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Niger, Mali, Lebanon, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and even Austrailia. Political corruption is not only wide spread,.....but the perpetrators aren't even trying to hide it now. Openly disregarding the constitution in many cases. Reminds historians of the last great act of the Roman empire, and that was to loot the treasury.

This country is a year, maybe months away from more people being on welfare than not. Think about that once the treasury is empty.

The only way we are going to be able to survive as individuals and as a culture is to develop some type of team. Let me back up a bit. Meaning by beliefs not segregated by race or ethnic groups. This is a culture that aspires individual rights, a moral code and compassion for those who cannot help themselves. I have talked at length before on the necessity of developing a survival group. This does not mean that you have to live in a commune now, can,...but it is unrealistic for 90% of Americans. Your survival team can be just a network of alike minded individuals and families.

It's important to vet your people as to their ability to live together and get along. I would much rather have straphangers, with skills and without supplies or equipment, integrating into my team, than to accept some exceptional trained and prepared person who cannot act with the team foremost on his mind.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Survival Mom's Advice for Kids

UrbanSurvivalSkills is a fan of Lisa Bedford, the author of Survival Mom: How to Prepare Your Family for Everyday Disasters and Worst Case Scenarios, and editor of the excellent survival and self-reliance blog, The Survival Mom.

One of her posts was printed on Peak Prosperity and titled The 4 Survival Skills Every Kid Should Know Some of outdoor adventurer Bear Grylls’ biggest fans are kids. Their eyes widen at his derring-do, and boys and girls alike admire his survival skills and savvy. But the survival skills that are more likely to keep our kids safe and sound are actually far more mundane! Here are four survival skills that every kid should know, along with a few tips for parents.

What to do if lost A lost child is a scared child, and usually their first instinct is to begin searching for their family. Train your children to stop and sit as soon as they realize they are lost. Assure them that, no matter how scared they might be, you are searching for them at that very moment; but also that, if they keep moving around, it will take longer to find them. Consider equipping your children with an inexpensive cell phone and when venturing outdoors, a few survival items tucked in a backpack or their pockets. Items such as a whistle, a bright bandana and a bottle of water are the makings of a kids’ survival kit that will go a long way to helping them be found more quickly.

How to answer the door when home alone Usually the best strategy is to not answer the door! Yes, the person knocking could be a burglar scoping out the neighborhood. But once the door is opened, it’s that much easier for an intruder to enter. And children are easily overpowered. Train your child to enforce home security: Keep doors and windows locked and blinds and curtains closed. Noise from a TV or radio is fine. Someone with questionable motives will think twice about entering a home if they hear noises inside, even if the house is closed up and no one answers the door.

What to do in a medical emergency From a young age, kids can learn how to dial 911 and report an emergency, but this takes practice. Spend some time rehearsing phone calls, teaching your children to relay detailed information to an operator, follow his or her instructions, and then stay on the line until help arrives. If possible, children should also get the home ready for the arrival of EMTs by putting pets in closed areas and, if it’s nighttime, turning on both indoor and outdoor lights. Summer is an ideal time for children to take first aid and CPR classes, that are typically suitable for kids age 9 and up.

How to maintain situational awareness When driving in the car, for instance, ask your kids to describe a building or vehicle you just passed. Teach them to pay attention to the route home by asking them to give you driving directions! This one skill can help your child avoid many dangerous situations. The concept is simply for children to be aware of the people and events around them. Parents can help their children become more observant and aware—not by scaring them, but by playing games to teach and practice this skill. When driving in the car, for instance, ask your kids to describe a building or vehicle you just passed. Teach them to pay attention to the route home by asking them to give you driving directions! Tell them to close their eyes and describe what someone in the room is wearing. Encourage them to check out the license plates of passing cars: Which states are they from? What is the sum of the numbers on the license plate? Being aware of their surroundings will help them avoid predatory people and other dangerous scenarios. Simple to teach. Fun to practice. And, quite possibly, a life saver.

UrbanMan's comments: Excellent tips for kids by an obviously clear thinking Mom. I would add some tips to this,...... Give your kids their own back pack/Bug Out Bag when they are at a responsible enough age to understand that when out of the house, shopping or to the zoo or wherever, that the bag stays within arms reach at all times. Have them carry their own water (even if it's one small bottle), some trail mix and/or granola bars, a spare set of socks, maybe a rain poncho and a host of other small items.  Maybe include a routine check of the contents prior to going out so the child starts to get used to pre-execution checks and inspections.  

Teach your kids how to tell cardinal directions and refer to traveling in these directions. Test them by asking which direction are we going in now? Teach them the clock method of pointing out things. See that blue house at your 1 o'clock? See that black truck at our 6?

I like Survival Mom's idea on home security, but add in a procedure on what to do if someone with ill intent enters your house. What are the escape routes and where to go once the child is out of the house. Refer to this as the Bug Out plan.

All of the above is to start socializing survival concepts and mindset, and, self reliance.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Worldwide Indicators of SHTF, September 2012

Global Economy. Moody's downgrades the Global Economy,..."Moody's analysts states that: risks to the global forecast remain to the downside and have risen relative to the risks perceived earlier in the year. The main risks to the global macro outlook stem from (i) a deeper than currently expected recession in the euro area, for example caused by deeper credit contraction; (ii) the risk of a hard landing in major emerging market economies, including China, India and Brazil; (iii) an oil-price supply-side shock resulting from resurfacing geopolitical risks; and (iv) the risk of sudden and sharp fiscal tightening in the US in 2013, given recent political gridlock."

Spain. Jobless roster grew to 4.63 million people in August 2012. The Spanish are suffering a nearly 25 per cent unemployment rate.

Unemployment now at 10%; businesses and capital are leaving France at an alarming rate due to high taxation on businesses and the wealthy by the new Socialist Government. 

is expected to hit 27 to 29% in early 2013. 1 in 3 Greece businesses are closing.

is now reported to be much further along than previously thought in development of a nuclear weapon, both in the enriching of uranium and the computer modeling for weapons design.

United States:
Many Urban food pantries supporting the poor are depleted. Donation both monetary and food supply wise are way down now while the demand is increasing.

Latest data has 46.7 million people on food stamps. Food stamps has doubled in the last four years and there is no reversal in site.

Food Prices already up by an average of 30% in the last 18 month is expected to go up another 8% in the next three months.

U.S. Cities going bankrupt San Bernadino, Mammoth Lakes, Stockton are bankrupt. Fresno, Compton and San Jose are not far behind,...and these are just in California. Rhode Island has Central Falls. Other cities on the bubble (and going to fall) include: Miami; Detroit; Rockland County, NY; and Gary, IN.

National drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor estimates that up to 80% of the contiguous 48 states faced moderate to exceptional drought conditions over the summer. A lack of rain coupled with high temperatures severely damaged corn and soybean crops. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the corn harvest to fall 13% from last year’s crop, and expects the soybean crop to fall 12%.

Collapse of the Dollar. The dollar is dropping, and to be fair it comes up and goes down, then comes up again and goes down, but overall the buying power of the U.S. dollar and the respect if has as the World's Reserve Currency is greatly diminished. The Fed is initiating another type of Quantitative Easing which will certainly devalue the dollar more. Fuel prices will go up, as will virtually everything else on the planet.

Oil prices are no longer expected to ever drop below $80 a barrel. In fact, some experts are bracing us to see $200 a barrel in mid 2013.

Hey, things are good. Take that extra $30 and go see a movie. You don't need to buy more foods, supplies or ammunition!!

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Matt Bracken: When The Music Stops – How America’s Cities May Explode In Violence

This article was posted on Western Rifle Shooters under the same title as above.

From UrbanMan: Mr Bracken is a ex-Navy SEAL and author of the "Enemies Foreign And Domestic" triology as well another Survival novel titled, "Castigo Cay". Bracken writes much more authoritaritive on the most probably catalyst for the coming economic collapse which will very likely become chaotic and threaten our survival, and that is the Government going bankrupt making welfare entitlement checks worthless creating an Army of 45 million (and more every day) of hungry and hungry people. God forbid if they get organized.

In any event, Bracken's article, certainly because he is a skilled author, is a very good read. Go the Western Rifle Shooters website, linked above, and read all of the enlightened comments regarding this article as well.

Matt Bracken's article :

In response to recent articles in mainstream military journals discussing the use of the U.S. Army to quell insurrections on American soil, I offer an alternate vision of the future. Instead of a small town in the South as the flash point, picture instead a score of U.S. cities in the thrall of riots greater than those experienced in Los Angeles in 1965 (Watts), multiple cities in 1968 (MLK assassination), and Los Angeles again in 1992 (Rodney King). New Yorkers can imagine the 1977 blackout looting or the 1991 Crown Heights disturbance. In fact, the proximate spark of the next round of major riots in America could be any from a long list cribbed from our history.

We have seen them all before, and we shall see them all again as history rhymes along regardless of the century or the generation of humankind nominally in control of events. But the next time we are visited by widespread, large-scale urban riots, a dangerous new escalation may be triggered by a new vulnerability: It’s estimated that the average American home has less than two weeks of food on hand. In poor minority areas, it may be much less. What if a cascading economic crisis, even a temporary one, leads to millions of EBT (electronic benefit transfer) cards flashing nothing but zeroes? Or if the government’s refusal to reimburse them causes supermarket chains to stop accepting them for payment? The government can order the supermarkets to honor the cards, but history’s verdict is clear: If suppliers are paid only with worthless scrip or blinking digits, the food will stop.


In my scenario, the initial riots begin spontaneously across affected urban areas, as SNAP (supplemental nutrition assistance program) and other government welfare recipients learn that their EBT cards no longer function. This sudden revelation will cause widespread anger, which will quickly lead to the flash-mob looting of local supermarkets and other businesses. The media will initially portray these “food riots” as at least partly justifiable. Sadly, millions of Americans have been made largely, or even entirely, dependent on government wealth transfer payments to put food on their tables.

A new social contract has been created, where bread and circuses buy a measure of peace in our minority-populated urban zones. In the era of ubiquitous big-screen cable television, the internet and smart phones, the circus part of the equation is never in doubt as long as the electricity flows. But the bread is highly problematic. Food must be delivered the old-fashioned way: physically. Any disruption in the normal functioning of the EBT system will lead to food riots with a speed that is astonishing. This will inevitably happen when our unsustainable, debt-fueled binge party finally stops, and the music is over. Now that the delivery of free or heavily subsidized food is perceived by tens of millions of Americans to be a basic human right, the cutoff of “their” food money will cause an immediate explosion of rage. When the hunger begins to bite, supermarkets, shops and restaurants will be looted, and initially the media will not condemn the looting. Unfortunately, this initial violence will only be the start of a dangerous escalation.

The ransacked supermarkets, convenience stores, ATMs and gas stations will not be restocked during this period due to the precarious security situation. A single truck loaded with food or gasoline would be perceived to be a Fort Knox on wheels and subject to immediate attack unless heavily protected by powerfully armed security forces, but such forces will not be available during this chaotic period. Under those conditions, resupply to the urban areas cannot and will not take place. The downward spiral of social and economic dysfunction will therefore both accelerate and spread from city to city. These delays, in turn, will lead to more riots with the constant underlying demand that hungry people be fed, one way or another.

Catch-22, anyone? When these demands do not bring the desired outcome, the participants will ratchet up the violence, hoping to force action by the feckless state and national governments.

The “food riots” will be a grass-roots movement of the moment born out of hunger and desperation. It will not be dependent upon leaders or an underlying organization, although they could certainly add to the sauce. Existing cell phone technology provides all the organization a flash mob needs. Most of the mobs will consist of minority urban youths, termed MUYs in the rest of this essay. Which minority doesn’t matter; each urban locale will come with its own unique multi-ethnic dynamic.

Some locales will divide upon religious or political lines, but they will not be the dominant factors contributing to conflict. In the American context, the divisions will primarily have an ethnic or racial context, largely because that makes it easy to sort out the sides at a safe distance. No need to check religious or political affiliation at a hundred yards when The Other is of a different color.

We Americans are all about doing things the easy way, so, sadly, visible racial and ethnic features will form the predominant lines of division.

Would that it were not so, but reality is reality, even when it’s is a bitch.

Especially then.


In order to highlight their grievances and escalate their demands for an immediate resumption of government benefits, the MUY flash mobs will next move their activities to the borders of their ethnic enclaves. They will concentrate on major intersections and highway interchanges where non-MUY suburban commuters must make daily passage to and from what forms of employment still exist. People making a living will still be using those roads to get to where they earn their daily bread.

The results of these clashes will frequently resemble the intersection of Florence and Normandie during the Rodney King riots in 1992, where Reginald Denny was pulled out of his truck’s cab and beaten nearly to death with a cinder block. If you don’t remember it, watch it on Youtube. Then imagine that scene with the mob-making accelerant of texting and other social media technology added to stoke the fires. Instead of a few dozen thugs terrorizing the ambushed intersections, in minutes there will be hundreds.

Rioters will throw debris such as shopping carts and trash cans into the intersection, causing the more timid drivers to pause. The mobs will swarm the lines of trapped cars once they have stopped. Traffic will be forced into gridlock for blocks in all directions. Drivers and passengers of the wrong ethnic persuasions will be pulled from their vehicles to be beaten, robbed, and in some cases raped and/or killed. It will be hyper-violent and overtly racial mob behavior, on a massive and undeniable basis.

Some of those trapped in their cars will try to drive out of the area, inevitably knocking down MUY pedestrians and being trapped by even more outraged MUYs. The commuters will be dragged out of their cars and kicked or beaten to death. Other suburban commuters will try to shoot their way out of the lines of stopped cars, and they will meet the same grim fate once they run out of bullets and room to escape.

The mob will be armed with everything from knives, clubs and pistols to AK-47s. A bloodbath will result. These unlucky drivers and their passengers will suffer horribly, and some of their deaths will be captured on traffic web cameras. Later, these terrible scenes will be released or leaked by sympathetic government insiders and shown by the alternative media, which continue to expand as the traditional media become increasingly irrelevant.

Implausible, you insist?

This grim tableau is my analysis of age-old human behavior patterns, adding flash mobs and 2012 levels of racial anger to the old recipe. Early-teenage MUYs today are frequently playing “The Knockout Game” on full bellies, just for kicks, and proudly uploading the videos. They and their older peers can be expected to do far worse when hunger and the fear of starvation enter their physical, mental, and emotional equations. The blame for their hunger will be turned outward against the greater society, and will be vented at first hand against any non-MUY who falls into their grasp while they are in the thrall of mob hysteria. These episodes of mass psychology we will refer to as “flash mob riots”, “wilding”, or some other new name.


To gear up for even a single “Florence and Normandie on steroids” flash mob street riot, city police departments will require an hour or longer to stage their SWAT teams and riot squads in position to react. Ordinary patrol cars in small numbers will not venture anywhere near such roiling masses of hysterical rioters, not even to perform rescues. Those citizens trapped in their cars cannot expect timely assistance from local or state authorities.

Even in the first days of widespread riots, when the police forces are well rested, it might take several hours to mount a response sufficient to quell the disturbance and restore order to even one major street intersection riot. In the meantime, scores of innocent commuters will have been attacked, with many of them injured or killed and left at the scene. It will be a law enforcement nightmare to quell the disturbance, mop up lingering rioters, restore security, and bring medical attention to the living and get medical examiners to the dead. And each jurisdiction will face potentially dozens of such scenes, thanks to the ability for MUYs to cross-communicate at will using their wireless devices.

The far more difficult challenge for the police is that by the time they are suited in riot gear, armed and geared up to sweep the intersection, it will probably be empty of rioters. The police, with their major riot squad reaction times measured in hours, will be fighting flash mobs that materialize, cause mayhem, and evaporate in only fractions of hours. This rapid cycle time is a clear lesson taken from massive riots by immigrant French Muslim MUYs in their own religious enclaves and bordering areas.

The American flash mob riot will exist almost entirely inside the law enforcement OODA (observe, orient, decide, act) loop. In other words, the rioters will have a much quicker reaction time than the police. Until fairly recently, superior police communications meant that they could use their radio networks as a force multiplier. With their networking advantage and cohesive reactions both within a department and among cooperating local agencies, police could act as shepherds guiding or dispersing a wayward stampeding

Today, the mob has the greater advantage, immediately spreading word of every police preparation by text and Tweet, even in advance of the police movement. Attempts by the authorities to stop the flash mobs by blocking and jamming wireless transmissions will have limited success.

It is at this point that the situation spirals out of control.

The enraged mobs in urban America will soon recognize that their spontaneous street riots cannot be stopped by the police, and then they will grow truly fearsome. For the police, it will be a losing game of Whack-a-Mole, with riots breaking out and dispersing at a speed they cannot hope to match. The violence will spread to previously unaffected cities as an awareness of law enforcement impotence is spread by television and social media. After a few days, the police forces will be exhausted and demoralized. As the violence intensifies and spreads, and in the absence of any viable security arrangements, supermarkets and other stores will not be restocked, leaving the MUYs even more desperate and angry than before. The increasing desperation born of worsening hunger will refuel the escalating spiral of violence.

Nor will violent conflict be only between the inhabitants of the urban areas and the suburbs. The international record of conflict in tri-ethnic cities is grim, making the old bi-racial dichotomy formerly seen in America seem stable by comparison. In tri-ethnic cities the perceived balance of power is constantly shifting, with each side in turn feeling outnumbered and outmuscled. Temporary truces, betrayals and new alliances follow in rapid succession, removing any lingering sense of social cohesion.

The former Yugoslavia, with its Catholic, Orthodox and Muslim divisions, comes starkly to mind. The Lebanese Civil War between the Christians, Sunnis, Shiites and Druze raged across Beirut (at one time known as “The Paris of the Middle East”) for fifteen brutal years. Once a city turns on itself and becomes a runaway engine of self-destruction, it can be difficult to impossible to switch off the process and return to normal pre-conflict life. It’s not inconceivable that the United States could produce a dozen Sarajevos or Beiruts, primarily across racial instead of religious divides.

Vehicle traffic by non-minority suburban commuters through adjoining minority areas will virtually halt, wrecking what is left of the local economy. Businesses will not open because employees will not be able to travel to work safely. Businesses in minority areas, needless to say, will be looted. “Gentrified” enclaves of affluent suburbanites within or near the urban zones will suffer repeated attacks, until their inhabitants flee.

Radically disaffected minorities will hold critical infrastructure corridors through their areas hostage against the greater society. Highways, railroad tracks, pipe and power lines will all be under constant threat, or may be cut in planned or unplanned acts of raging against “the system.” As long as security in the urban areas cannot be restored, these corridors will be under threat. Even airports will not be immune. Many of them have been absorbed into urban areas, and aircraft will come under sporadic fire while taking off and landing.

In the absence of fresh targets of value blundering into their areas, and still out of food, MUYs will begin to forage beyond their desolated home neighborhoods and into suburban borderlands. “Safe” supermarkets and other stores will be robbed in brazen commando-like gang attacks. Carjackings and home invasions will proliferate madly. As I have discussed in my essay “The Civil War Two Cube,” so-called “transitional” and mixed-ethnic areas will suffer the worst violence. These neighborhoods will become utterly chaotic killing zones, with little or no help coming from the overstretched police, who will be trying to rest up for their next shift on riot squad duty, if they have not already deserted their posts to take care of their own families.


In the absence of an effective official police response to the exploding levels of violence, suburbanites will first hastily form self-defense forces to guard their neighborhoods—especially ones located near ethnic borders. These ubiquitous neighborhood armed defense teams will often have a deep and talented bench from which to select members, and they will not lack for volunteers.

Since 9-11, hundreds of thousands of young men (and more than a few women) have acquired graduate-level educations in various aspects of urban warfare. In the Middle East these troops were frequently tasked with restoring order to urban areas exploding in internecine strife. Today these former military men and women understand better than anyone the life-or-death difference between being armed and organized versus unarmed and disorganized.

Hundreds of thousands if not millions of veterans currently own rifles strikingly similar to those they carried in the armed forces, lacking only the full-automatic selector switch. Their brothers, sisters, parents, friends, and neighbors who did not serve in the military are often just as familiar with the weapons, if not the tactics. Today the AR-pattern rifle (the semi-automatic civilian version of the familiar full-auto-capable M-16 or M-4) is the most popular model of rifle in America, with millions sold in the past decade. Virtually all of them produced in the past decade have abandoned the old M-16′s signature “carrying handle” rear iron sight for a standardized sight mounting rail, meaning that virtually every AR sold today can be easily equipped with an efficient optical sight. Firing the high-velocity 5.56×45 mm cartridge and mounted with a four-power tactical sight, a typical AR rifle can shoot two-inch groups at one hundred yards when fired from a steady bench rest. That translates to shooting eight- to ten-inch groups at four hundred yards.

Four hundred yards is a long walk. Pace it off on a straight road, and observe how tiny somebody appears at that distance. Yet a typical AR rifle, like those currently owned by millions of American citizens, can hit a man-sized target at that range very easily, given a stable firing platform and a moderate level of shooting ability.

And there are a far greater number of scoped bolt-action hunting rifles in private hands in the United States. Keep this number in mind: based on deer stamps sold, approximately twenty million Americans venture into the woods every fall armed with such rifles, fully intending to shoot and kill a two-hundred-pound mammal. Millions of these scoped bolt-action deer rifles are quite capable of hitting a man-sized target at ranges out to and even beyond a thousand yards, or nearly three-fifths of a mile. In that context, the 500-yard effective range of the average semi-auto AR-pattern rifle is not at all remarkable.

So, we have millions of men and women with military training, owning rifles similar to the ones they used in combat operations overseas from Vietnam to Afghanistan. Many of these Soldiers and Marines have special operations training. They are former warriors with experience at conducting irregular warfare and counter-terrorism operations in dangerous urban environments. They are the opposite of unthinking robots: their greatest military talent is looking outside the box for new solutions. They always seek to “over-match” their enemies, using their own advantages as force multipliers while diminishing or concealing their weaknesses. These military veterans are also ready, willing and able to pass on their experience and training to interested students in their civilian circles.

Let’s return to our hypothetical Florence and Normandie intersection, but this time with hundreds of rioters per city block, instead of mere dozens. Among the mobs are thugs armed with pistols and perhaps even AK-47s equipped with standard iron sights, and except in rare cases, these rifles have never been “zeroed in” on a target range. In other words, past a medium distance of fifty to a hundred yards, these MUY shooters will have little idea where their fired bullets will strike—nor will they care. Typically, most of the rioters armed with a pistol, shotgun or an iron-sighted rifle could not hit a mailbox at a hundred yards unless by luck. Inside that distance, any non-MUY could be at immediate risk of brutal death at the hands of an enraged mob, but beyond that range, the mob will pose much less danger.

Taking this imbalance in effective ranges of the firearms most likely to be available to both sides, certain tactical responses are sure to arise, and ranking near the top will be the one described next.


The sniper ambush will predictably be used as a counter to rampaging mobs armed only with short- to medium-range weapons. This extremely deadly trick was developed by our war fighters in Iraq and Afghanistan, taking advantage of the significant effective range and firepower of our scoped 5.56mm rifles. Tactics such as the sniper ambush may not be seen early in the civil disorder, but they will surely arise after a steady progression of atrocities attributed to rampaging MUYs.

Street intersection flash mob riots will not be the only type of violence exploding during periods of civil disorder. As mentioned earlier, the number and ferocity of home invasions will skyrocket, and they will be very hard to defend against. Neighborhood self-defense forces will be able to protect a group of homes if they are located on cul-de-sacs or in defensible subdivisions with limited entrances, turning them overnight into fortified gated communities. Individual homes and apartment buildings located in open grid-pattern neighborhoods with outside access from many directions will be much more difficult to defend, and the home invasions will continue.

Carjacking and other forms of armed robbery will proliferate to previously unimagined levels, leading to a total loss of confidence in the government’s ability to provide security across all social lines. Stray bullets striking pedestrians or penetrating houses will take a frightening toll, even in areas previously considered to be safe. The police will be exhausted by constant riot-squad duty, and will not even respond to reports of mere individual acts of violent criminality. They will simply be overwhelmed, and will be forced to triage their responses. The wealthy, powerful and politically well-connected will demand the lion’s share of remaining police resources, further diminishing the safety of average Americans.

In that context, neighborhood self-defense forces will form the nucleus of the armed vigilante direct action groups which will spring up next in the progression. Suburban anger will continue to build against the MUYs, who are perceived to be the originators of the home invasions and gang-level armed looting raids. Survivors of street ambushes, carjackings and home invasions will tell blood-curdling tales and show horrific scars.

The neighborhood defense teams will evolve into proactive suburban armed vigilante groups (SAVs) out of a desire to preemptively take the violence to their perceived enemies, instead of passively waiting for the next home invasion or carjacking. The SAV teams will consist of the more aggressive and gung-ho members of the self-defense forces, who met and compared notes. Often they will be young men with recent combat experience in the armed forces, who will apply their military training to the new situation. Major intersections and highway interchanges where ambush riots have previously occurred will be among the SAV targets. The SAV reaction times will be measured in minutes, compared to the hours required by major police department SWAT teams and riot squads.


When word is received that a flash mob is forming at one of their pre-reconnoitered intersections or highway interchanges, the SAV team will assemble. Sometimes cooperating police will pass tactical intel to their civilian friends on the outside. Some clever individuals will have exploited their technical know-how and military experience to build real-time intel collection tools, such as private UAVs. Police will have access to urban security camera footage showing MUYs moving barricade materials into position—a normal prerequisite to a flash mob riot intended to stop traffic. Tip-offs to the vigilantes will be common, and where the networks are still functioning, citizens may still be able to access some video feeds. Sometimes, police will even join the SAV teams, incognito and off-duty, blurring the teams into so-called “death squads.”

The operation I will describe (and it’s only one of dozens that will be tried) uses two ordinary pickup trucks and eight fighters. Two riflemen are lying prone in the back of each truck, facing rearward, with removable canvas covers concealing their presence. Their semi-automatic, scoped rifles are supported at their front ends on bipods for very accurate shooting. A row of protective sandbags a foot high is between them and the raised tailgate.

In the cab are a driver and a spotter in the passenger seat who also serves as the vehicle’s 360-degree security. The two trucks don’t ever appear on the same stretch of road, but coordinate their movements using one-word brevity codes over small FRS walkie-talkie radios. Each truck has a series of predetermined elevated locations where the intersection in question will lie between 200 and 500 yards away. Each truck is totally nondescript and forgettable, the only detail perhaps being the non-MUY ethnicity of the suburbanite driver and spotter driving relatively near to a riot in progress.

By the time the two SAV pickup trucks arrive at their firing positions on different streets and oriented ninety degrees to one another, the flash mob riot is in full swing. A hundred or more of the rampaging youths are posturing and throwing debris into traffic in order to intimidate some cars into stopping. The riflemen in the backs of the pickups are waiting for this moment and know what to expect, trusting their spotters and drivers to give them a good firing lane. The spotters in each truck issue a code word on their radios when they are in final position. The tailgates are swung down, and the leader among the riflemen initiates the firing. All-around security is provided by the driver and spotter.

Lying prone and using their bipods for support, the shooters have five to ten degrees of pan or traverse across the entire intersection. Individual rioters are clearly visible in the shooters’ magnified optical scopes. Each of the four snipers has a plan to shoot from the outside of the mob toward the middle, driving participants into a panicked mass. The left-side shooters start on the left side and work to the middle, engaging targets with rapid fire, about one aimed shot per two seconds. Since the two trucks are set at ninety degrees to one another, very complete coverage will be obtained, even among and between the stopped vehicles.

The result is a turkey shoot. One magazine of thirty aimed shots per rifle is expended in under a minute, a coded cease-fire is called on the walkie-talkies, and the trucks drive away at the speed limit. The canvas covering the truck beds contains the shooters’ spent brass. If the trucks are attacked from medium or close range, the canvas can be thrown back and the two snipers with their semi-automatic rifles or carbines will add their firepower to that of the driver and spotter.

Back at the intersection, complete panic breaks out among the rioters as a great number of bullets have landed in human flesh. Over a score have been killed outright, and many more scream in pain for medical attention they will not receive in time. The sniper ambush stops the flash mob cold in its tracks as the uninjured flee in terror, leaving their erstwhile comrades back on the ground bleeding. The commuters trapped in their vehicles may have an opportunity to escape.

This type of sniper ambush and a hundred variations on the theme will finally accomplish what the police could not: put an end to mobs of violent rioters making the cities through-streets and highways impassible killing zones. Would-be rioters will soon understand it to be suicidal to cluster in easily visible groups and engage in mob violence, as the immediate response could come at any time in the form of aimed fire from hundreds of yards away. Even one rifleman with a scoped semi-auto can break up a medium-sized riot.

Many citizens will take to carrying rifles and carbines in their vehicles, along with their pistols, so that if their cars are trapped in an ambush they will have a chance to fight their way out. If their vehicle is stopped outside the immediate area of the flash mob, they will be able to direct accurate fire at the rioters from a few hundred yards away. Inside the fatal hundred-yard radius, unlucky suburbanite drivers and passengers pulled from their cars will still be brutally violated, but the occurrences of large mob-driven street ambushes will be much less frequent once long-range retaliation becomes a frequent expectation.


Where they will be unable to respond swiftly or effectively to the outbreaks of street riots by MUY flash mobs, the police and federal agents will respond vigorously to the deadly but smaller vigilante attacks. These sniper ambushes and other SAV attacks will be called acts of domestic terrorism and mass murder by government officials and the mainstream media. A nearly seamless web of urban and suburban street cameras will reveal some of the SAV teams by their vehicles, facial recognition programs, and other technical means. Some early arrests will be made, but the vigilantes will adapt to increasing law enforcement pressure against them by becoming cleverer about their camouflage, most often using stolen cars and false uniforms and masks during their direct-action missions. Observe Mexico today for ideas on how this type of dirty war is fought.

Eventually, the U.S. Army itself might be called upon to put out all the social firestorms in our cities, restore order and security, pacify the angry masses, feed the starving millions, get vital infrastructure operating again, and do it all at once in a dozen American Beiruts, Sarajevos and Mogadishus.

Good luck to them, I say.

A few hundred “Active IRA” tied down thousands of British troops in one corner of a small island for decades. The same ratios have served the Taliban well over the past decade while fighting against the combined might of NATO. Set aside for a moment the angry starving millions trapped in the urban areas, and the dire security issues arising thereof. Just to consider the official reaction to vigilantism separately, it’s unlikely that any conceivable combinations of local and state police, federal law enforcement, National Guard or active-duty Army actions could neutralize or eliminate tens of thousands of former special operations troops intent on providing their own form of security. Millions of Americans are already far better armed and trained than a few hundred IRA or Taliban ever were. And the police and Army would not be operating from secure fire bases, their families living in total safety thousands of miles away in a secure rear area. In this scenario, there is no rear area, and every family member, anywhere, would be at perpetual risk of reprisal actions by any of the warring sides.

In this hyper-dangerous environment, new laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in vehicles would be ignored as the illegitimate diktat of dictatorship, just when the Second Amendment is needed more than ever. Police or military conducting searches for firearms at checkpoints would themselves become targets of vigilante snipers. Serving on anti-firearms duty would be seen as nothing but pure treason by millions of Americans who took the oath to defend the Constitution, including the Bill of Rights. Politicians who did not act in the security interest of their local constituents as a result of political correctness or other reasons would also be targeted.

A festering race war with police and the military in the middle taking fire from both sides could last for many years, turning many American cities into a living hell. Remember history: when the British Army landed in Northern Ireland in 1969, they were greeted with flowers and applause from the Catholics. The Tommys were welcomed as peacekeepers who would protect them from Protestant violence. That soon changed. Likewise with our tragic misadventure in Lebanon back in 1982 and 1983. Well-intended referees often find themselves taking fire from all sides. It’s as predictable as tomorrow’s sunrise. Why would it be any different when the U.S. Army is sent to Los Angeles, Chicago or Philadelphia to break apart warring ethnic factions?

For a long time after these events, it will be impossible for the warring ethnic groups to live together or even to mingle peacefully. Too much rage and hatred will have been built up on all sides of our many American multi-ethnic fault lines. The new wounds will be raw and painful for many years to come, as they were in the South for long after the Civil War. The fracturing of the urban areas, divided by no-man’s-lands, will also hinder economic redevelopment for many years because the critical infrastructure corridors will remain insecure.

Eventually, high concrete “Peace Walls” like those in Belfast, Northern Ireland, will be installed where the different ethnic groups live in close proximity. That is, if recovery to sane and civilized norms of behavior are ever regained in our lifetimes and we don’t slide into a new Dark Age, a stern and permanent tyranny, warlordism, anarchy, or any other dire outcome.

Dark Ages can last for centuries, after sinking civilizations in a vicious, downward vortex. “When the music’s over, turn out the lights,” to quote Jim Morrison of The Doors. Sometimes the lights stay out for a long time. Sometimes civilization itself is lost. Millions of EBT cards flashing zeroes might be the signal event of a terrible transformation.

It is a frightening thing to crystallize the possible outbreak of mass starvation and racial warfare into words, so that the mind is forced to confront agonizingly painful scenarios. It is much easier to avert one’s eyes and mind from the ugliness with politically correct Kumbaya bromides. In this grim essay, I am describing a brutal situation of ethnic civil war not differing much from the worst scenes from recent history in Rwanda, South Africa, Mexico, Bosnia, Iraq, and many other places that have experienced varying types and degrees of societal collapse. We all deplore the conditions that might drive us toward such a hellish outcome, and we should work unceasingly to return America to the path of true brotherhood, peace and prosperity. Race hustlers of every stripe should be condemned.

Most of us wish we could turn back the calendar to Norman Rockwell’s America. But we cannot, for that America is water long over the dam and gone from our sight, if not from our memories. John Adams said, “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” If that is true, judging by current and even accelerating cultural shifts, we might already have passed the point of no return.

The prudent American will trim his sails accordingly.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Today is the Day Before,..Are You Ready for Tomorrow?

Today is the Day Before,..Are You Ready for Tomorrow? This is the title page at the government's where you will find the U.S. Government exposes emergency preparedness for natural disasters and other non-intentional scenarios for SHTF. On the landing page of this site there is a U.S. map that you can click on to see dates and events, in a day before, day after format, which are designed to impact the reader with the need to prepare.

People who are not completely in the camp for preparing for economic collapse, nuclear or EMP attacks, or a total SHTF type scenario, could benefit from this site. Right or wrong they may see that if the U.S. Government advocates some sort of preparedness then it may be a valid thing to do. May ultimately mean less refugees in the very early phases or less people knocking at your door.

The website also has some more videos, while not really instructional, they magnify the general prepares theme. Here is one of them:

For more videos go to this address.

Monday, September 10, 2012

Louisiana Survival Rehearsal

I talked to my friend, I'll call him William for the sake of this article, who is in Louisiana. We talked several times via cell phone before connectivity became problematic during Hurricane Isaac.

William's survival group of people consist of three families, who have the plan to consolidate at one location (Williams rural ranch style house, for any collapse,.. related, economic collapse, or you name it. They used this plan to wait out the extreme weather and other threats brought about by Hurricane Isaac.

At their Bug In House they have spent the years after Hurricane Katrina making this site more self sufficient. Trees around the house were cleared to give better visibility and, if necessary, fields of fire. All the wood was cut and stored giving them almost 5 cords of wood on hand to go with the wood burning oven that William said he installed in his living room, although unnecessary for this heating needs most of the year, especially during the warmer months of Hurricane season.

Tons of dirt were re-located or brought in to provide a raised donut around the house and sloping off to low ground to protect against the flooding brought about by heavy rains.

Two gasoline powered generators power the necessary appliances and lights after the power goes down. They have three refrigerators and have a rotation plan so they don't have to provide power to all of the refrigerators at the same time. When I talked to William he was in the process of ensuring the generators was positioned to run either the refrigerator in the house or the two refrigerators in the garage, as well as the light arrays he has in the house.

He said the days before the Hurricane he and his partner families were able to pickup some last minute items like fuel (for the generators), batteries, candles, some baked items and canned goods.

My friend's location, while I have not seen it, is described as a rural area with a small steam running close to the property line it providing an alternative access, both ingress and egress, to the property via a flat bottomed boat.

There is one long drive way from the house to a hardball road road. This hard ball road crosses a small river which in heavy rains floods out as I am told.

My friend called me to let me know that all three families, counting six adults, two teenagers and an 6 year old were on site doing last minute prep in a pretty heavy rain when a dark colored truck came down the road towards their house. While on the three people covered from the house, and one of the other adult males went to the back of the house to watch the rear, William went out to approach the truck. William was carrying an M-4 on a sling. William thought the people in the truck saw him with a slung weapon so they rapidly turned around and left. This was apparently the only excitement they had during this Hurricane/ Tropical Storm.

Three days later I e-mailed William as connectivity came back and asked him what his lessons learned were. This is the edited version of what he wrote back:

1. Develop a water catchment system. We had way too much rain (potential drinking water and for other uses) lost.
2. Solar Panels. They don't work in overcast or rainy weather, which is primarily why we don't have any. But are now thinking the need but would have to make it a priority to lay out solar panels when sunny conditions make it worthwhile.
3. Increase fuel storage for generators.
4. Look into a wind generator for additional power supply and battery re-charging.
5. Install early warning system, actually two - one mechanical and one electronic, for the drive way entrance. Did not like to discover a visitor (the truck) when it only 50 yards from the front door.
6.  Install a spot light so that approaching vehicles can be spot lighted, diminishing the occupants vision and helping protect an approach from the house.
7. Develop some obstacles along the river side so if anyone approached from that direction they would be channelized where more early warning systems could help detect them.

Well, if you don;t learn nothing - then at least learn from your mistakes.   Good point, William.   

Friday, September 7, 2012

Economic Death Spiral Coming

Economist Richard Duncan: "Civilization May Not Survive Death Spiral", By Terry Weiss, Money Morning

Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC. And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it." And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions. Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included. However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings: "We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible. Click here to see how banks are escalating the collapse... "And what's really disturbing about these findings is that the pattern isn't limited to our economy. We found the same catastrophic pattern in our energy, food, and water systems as well."

According to Martenson: "These systems could all implode at the same time. Food, water, energy, money. Everything." Another member of this team, Keith Fitz-Gerald, the president of The Fitz-Gerald Group, went on to explain their discoveries. "What this pattern represents is a dangerous countdown clock that's quickly approaching zero. And when it does, the resulting chaos is going to crush Americans," Fitz-Gerald says.

Dr. Kent Moors, an adviser to 16 world governments on energy issues as well as a member of two U.S. State Department task forces on energy also voiced concerns over what he and his colleagues uncovered. "Most frightening of all is how this exact same pattern keeps appearing in virtually every system critical to our society and way of life," Dr. Moors stated. The work of this team garnered such attention, they were brought in front of the United Nations, UK Parliament, and numerous Fortune 500 companies to share much of their findings.

"It's a pattern that's hard to see unless you understand the way a catastrophe like this gains traction," Dr. Moors says. "At first, it's almost impossible to perceive. Everything looks fine, just like in every pyramid scheme. Yet the insidious growth of the virus keeps doubling in size, over and over again - in shorter and shorter periods of time - until it hits unsustainable levels. And it collapses the system."

Martenson points to the U.S. total credit market debt as an example of this unnerving pattern. "For 30 years - from the 1940s through the 1970s - our total credit market debt was moderate and entirely reasonable," he says. "But then in seven years, from 1970 to 1977, it quickly doubled. And then it doubled again in seven more years. Then five years to double a third time. And then it doubled two more times after that. "Where we were sitting at a total credit market debt that was 158% larger than our GDP in the early 1940s... By 2011 that figure was 357%."

Dr. Moors warns this type of unsustainable road to collapse can be seen today in our energy, food and water production. All are tightly connected and contributing to the economic disaster that lies directly ahead. Editor's note: Germany's military held a secret investigation into this unsustainable pattern and concluded it could lead to "political instability and extremism."

According to polls, the average American is sensing danger. A recent survey found that 61% of Americans believe a catastrophe is looming - yet only 15% feel prepared for such a deeply troubling event.

Fitz-Gerald says people should take steps to protect themselves from what is happening. "The amount of risky financial derivatives floating around the globe is as much as 20 times size of the entire GDP of the world," he says. "It's unsustainable and impossible to unwind in any kind of orderly way." Moreover, he adds: "People can also forget that the FDIC can only cover a fraction of US bank deposits. It's a false sense of security. Just like state pensions, which could be suspended at any time. A collapse could wipe out these programs. Entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are already bankrupt and simply being propped up."

We can see the strain on society already. In two years, Congress won't have any money for transportation, reports the Washington Post. Cities like Trenton, NJ have layed off one-third of their police force due to budget cuts. And other cities like Colorado Springs, CO removed one-third of streetlights, trashcans, and bus routes, reports CNN.

Fitz-Gerald also warns of a period of devastating inflation. A recent survey, reports USA Today, notes that in the coming years it could take $150,000 a year in household income for a family to afford basic living expenses - and maybe go out to a movie.

Right now, in fact, "52% of Americans feel they barely have enough to afford the basics." "If our research is right," says Fitz-Gerald, "Americans will have to make some tough choices on how they'll go about surviving when basic necessities become nearly unaffordable and the economy becomes dangerously unstable." "People need to begin to make preparations with their investments, retirement savings, and personal finances before it's too late," says Fitz-Gerald. Watch the video here:

Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Operational Rehearsals for Survival

I have only received about three e-mails in the past year or so that mentioned what I wrote about rehearsals, but one of them was from a young man returning from service in Iraq as a Mechanic and he said that when he went along on ground convoys the security force sometimes made everyone do rehearsals for ambushes and road side bombs.

I'll bet they also briefed a plan and possibly did other rehearals such as for in-operable vehicle and cross loaded people and supplies and other likely event...may have even may everyone aware of where the emergency medical kits were located, explained how to operate the vehicles radios and the correct frequencies.

Rehearsals do more than insure everyone understand their roles and tasks, rehearsals can detect problems and therefore dictate changes in the plan.

There are many types of rehearsals, the easiest type is called a chart rehearsal usually using a map, chart or sketch while briefing the plan. This is commonly done as an orders brief or patrol order brief before the mission launches but can be done during the planning process to determine critical areas of the plan and contingencies that need to be planned.

Much like a chart rehearsals the table top rehearsal also uses a graphic, sketch or map and much like the movies "The Dirty Dozen", all team members explain their tasks and roles, this can be done with just key leaders as well, leaving these key leaders to get their respective elements up to snuff.

Sand Table rehearsal uses a model of the entire operational area, or just critical segments of the missions, maybe just the objective area. Using dirt or sand or boxes, cardboard and other things, a 3D representation of an rural or urban area can be made to present a mental picture of ground and the the operational tasks and flow.

The term Key Leaders rehearsals refers to any type of rehearsal, chart, tabe top or sand table, where just the element leaders are present. Sometimes this is done because of time restraints to allow other to prepare equipment and vehicles for the mission while key leaders rehearse, modify, refine and finalize the plan.

The military uses a term, Tactical Exercise Without Troops (TEWT) is usually where key leaders walk or visit the terrain or area where the mission is going to take place. Probably utilized in a defensive scenario, I imagine this used quite a bit where a community, be it a urban apartment building or a suburban block (a street with houses) organizes for early warning and defense and maybe one of the survivors with experience goes house to house or apartment to apartment and goes over the plan and individual area of responsibility with each group.

Another way a TEWT could be used in a Survival or Collapse defensive scenario would be for a group planning on a response from one locaton to another could walk the terrain from an assembly area to the objective area basically rehearsing element movement.

A Full Mission Profile Rehearsal is just like it sounds,....everyone,..everything,....and all phases of the mission rehearsed. This is obviously the best type of rehearsal but it takes time and organization.

Remember to consider PACE planning in your rehearsals.  Primary, Alternate, Contingency and Emergency - have backups to all critical phases of your operation - test these during your rehearsals.  Think for yourselves and prepare well.